DIAG-12 · Diagnosis · Invariant: holds by construction, no expiry
Unlogged changes are permanent confounders
The law
For time-based observational attribution, an advertiser-initiated intervention recorded nowhere at execution time can never later be excluded or separated as a confounder: the outcome series maps many-to-one over intervention histories, so unlogged history is unrecoverable.
Scope
Before/after, event-study, and interrupted-time-series inference; "recorded nowhere" means neither own log nor retained platform change history.
What this licenses you to do
Log every advertiser-initiated change (timestamp, scope, intent) via a write-time hook covering humans and automations; refuse point attribution over any window whose change log is incomplete.
Riibon's own analysis is held to these laws
The laws on this site are a public subset of the rulebook Riibon's analysis works to. Before a metric movement is called a market event, the order of checks they set has to rule out the measurement first.
Ask the Riibon app why a number in your account moved, and see which checks it ran first. Access starts with a short call: we look at your ads together, then run them for you or set the app up with you.